Waiting for the Champions League Quarter Final Draw starring Tottenham I thought I would spend five minutes running some calculations on Crawley Town and their push for League Status. Crawley currently sit top of the Blue Square Premier with 77 pts ahead of AFC Wimbledon with 71 but having played 5 less games and facing them on Friday night at home so things are looking very good, what I have decided to look at however is when Crawley can have the title wrapped up. With Crawley, Wimbledon and Luton (Currently in 4th) having 12, 8 and 11 games remaining respectively they each have a maximum possible points score this season of:
Crawley Town 113 (Previous Highest is 101 Aldershot 07/08 Season)
Luton Town 102 (Hence why I have included them in analysis)
AFC Wimbledon 95
Obviously anything can happen in football and so far all Crawley are guaranteed is to finish above 9th but that would take not just a catastrophic loss of form but also an incredibly unlikely turn of events that would see the worst case scenario coming up for Crawley in every match. But onto more optimistic matters.
Going forward if things go Crawley’s way then the following scenario can see the title (and by extension promotion) being secured in two weeks time.
Crawley are playing 5 games in the next two weeks (Actually 2 weeks and 2 days)
Home – AFC Wimbledon
Away – Eastbourne
Away - Gateshead
Home – Mansfield
Home – Darlington
Obviously a very challenging schedule however if they win all the games they will sit on 92 Points with only AFC Wimbledon (92), Luton (102) and Wrexham (93) able to beat them and AFC only on GD.
Wrexham’s next game is away to Fleetwood Town which is not an easy fixture but all they need is one loss from their 4 games in the next two weeks and their maximum will be 91, If AFC Wimbledon drop a single point (Assuming they lose to Crawley Tomorrow Night ) they will also be mathematically prevented from beating Crawley.
The least likely turn of events however is that for Crawley to wrap up the title on the 2nd April Luton will need to lose all 4 of their matches between now and then which is more of a stretch than Wrexham and Wimbledon losing one, or for my money Crawley winning the next five.
If Luton and Crawley both continue to win however then the title could instead be clinched 10 days later on the 12th April when Crawley Host Luton, perhaps this would be a better turn of events as it would make that one hell of a match.
Crawley Town 113 (Previous Highest is 101 Aldershot 07/08 Season)
Luton Town 102 (Hence why I have included them in analysis)
AFC Wimbledon 95
Obviously anything can happen in football and so far all Crawley are guaranteed is to finish above 9th but that would take not just a catastrophic loss of form but also an incredibly unlikely turn of events that would see the worst case scenario coming up for Crawley in every match. But onto more optimistic matters.
Going forward if things go Crawley’s way then the following scenario can see the title (and by extension promotion) being secured in two weeks time.
Crawley are playing 5 games in the next two weeks (Actually 2 weeks and 2 days)
Home – AFC Wimbledon
Away – Eastbourne
Away - Gateshead
Home – Mansfield
Home – Darlington
Obviously a very challenging schedule however if they win all the games they will sit on 92 Points with only AFC Wimbledon (92), Luton (102) and Wrexham (93) able to beat them and AFC only on GD.
Wrexham’s next game is away to Fleetwood Town which is not an easy fixture but all they need is one loss from their 4 games in the next two weeks and their maximum will be 91, If AFC Wimbledon drop a single point (Assuming they lose to Crawley Tomorrow Night ) they will also be mathematically prevented from beating Crawley.
The least likely turn of events however is that for Crawley to wrap up the title on the 2nd April Luton will need to lose all 4 of their matches between now and then which is more of a stretch than Wrexham and Wimbledon losing one, or for my money Crawley winning the next five.
If Luton and Crawley both continue to win however then the title could instead be clinched 10 days later on the 12th April when Crawley Host Luton, perhaps this would be a better turn of events as it would make that one hell of a match.
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