I have been engaging people in several discussions recently on the AV referendum and my stance on it so I thought I would write an entry on AV (Alternative vote also known as Instantly Transferable Vote) just to give a bit of background on a) What it is, b) What it isn’t and c) why I am against it.
I will start as I do with each article I write which is to declare my bias, I am not saying that I will not try and be fair in my summery but it is important when reading my post to realise that I am against AV and there is a chance that this will colour my view, although I will endeavour to make sure it doesn’t until the final section (Why I am against it.)
WHAT IS AV?
AV or Alternative Vote is a system of polling where the voter lists the candidates in order of the preference in which they want them to be elected. So assuming we have 5 candidates
Mrs C Tory Conservative Party, Mr A Socialist Labour Party Miss B Eco Green Party Mr R Racist British National Party Mr A Comrade Communist Party of Britain
Now when people vote they will list the order of anyone they want to vote for, and leave blank whoever they don’t want to. So someone may list their votes as: 1 - British National Party/2 – Communist Party/3 – Labour Party/4 – Green Party/Blank – Conservative Party
Now if after the first round of counting (Votes numbered 1) we have the following results 10,000 Conservatives; 8,000 Labour; 1,500 Green Party; 600 Communist Party; 490 British National Party
With a total amount of 20,590 voters no one would have a majority (Over 50% of the votes) therefore the lowest amount of the votes is disregarded and they get their second choice so with the BNP being out the votes are recounted (Our fictional voters vote will therefore now be for the communist party)
After the second round then the votes sit at 10,010 Conservatives; 8,300 Labour; 1,550 Green Party; 730 Communist Party
Still no one would have hit 50% of the vote so the votes of the Communist Party are now disregarded and the votes are counted again. Our Voter is now classed as a Labour Voter 10,010 Conservative Party; 9,000 Labour; 1,580 Green Party
Still no clear winner so the Green party are kicked out and their votes are now rolled down to the next level.
Our final round of voting therefore will end up 10,200 Conservative Party; 10,390 Labour Party and the Labour Party candidate would become the winner.
Obviously this is a very simplistic view but that is intentional as I want to clarify the system more than show a true representation of what could happen.
WHAT AV ISN’T
I just wanted to write a quick piece on what AV isn’t just to try and stop any misconceptions, Alternative Vote is not Proportional Representation (PR), PR is a system where everyone votes and then the results are added up and each party receives the percentage of seats in keeping with that percentage of votes, PR is the system that we currently use to decide the European Elections.
Under PR you would no longer vote for a person but rather for a party and they would decide who gets to be elected. PR is considered, by voting reformers, the fairest way of deciding an election. However what it does is drastically remove the loyalty of an elected official to the electorate. Already in our system it is actually more important that you are popular inside your party than with the voters as an MP who is in good standing in his party will be given an easy seat, and if that fails there is always the unelected Lords (Peter Mendelson for example, who was unelected by the voters and then last year was actually placed in charge of the country during Gordon Brown’s holiday.)
Switching to PR will force a system where an elected official will owe everything to the party list (The only way of getting a seat will be to prioritise your party over your constituents) If you want an example of this I suggest you see how many people around you know can name your MP, and then try with your Euro MP – I would predict that the amount of people who can your name your MP is pathetically low but will be huge compared to your Euro MP.
WHY I AM AGAINST AV
Now I wanted to say why I am going to be voting No on May 5th obviously this is just my opinion and I don’t claim that this is the view of anyone but me, simply my reasons for voting no.
1) One Person, one Vote My main reason for being against AV is that it is a core principle of our democracy that there should be 1 person 1 vote, under the example I gave above as a Conservative voter I would have 1 vote, however the BNP voter was instead allowed 3 attempts to vote. Apparently this is fair but I personally do not want my vote to be worth the same as a BNP supporter’s third choice.
2) Doesn’t achieve its goals We are told that AV will break up the dominance of the Main 2 Parties however I really do not think that this will be the case, I can not see a time where the BNP or Communist Party receive over 50% of the vote (At least I hope not) so it will simply be an aggregation result – effectively what you are saying is “We know you want to vote for a smaller party, but which of the big two do you really want to vote for.” In fact using my home county of Sussex (East and West) as an example we can see that only Crawley and Brighton would have needed recounts the rest all going to Conservative with 1 Lib Dem. Also there is a very real chance that Caroline Lucas the Green Partys only MP would have lost her seat on subsequent recounts actually strengthening the hold of the main parties.
3) Time Spent Counting On a personal note, I really enjoy election night, I love watching the votes come in and I love seeing the situation unfolding, already there are often some votes which spill over to the next day but in any constituency where there is not a 50% winner (So obviously not too much of an issue in Sussex) in the first round this will start to necessitate second rounds, combine this with recounts (Possibly even recounts of the smaller parties to see who get removed next) and it is not uncommon for AV systems to still be counting a few days later.
4) Stepping Stone to PR Above I outlined my problems with PR, even the people I have met who are out actively campaigning for AV have suggested that it is a stepping stone to a “fully representative system” what they mean is PR, This is a very dangerous road as although PR may be in their eyes fully representative as I stated above it actually removes representation as people are no longer answerable to the people. It also encourages “Inertia Voting” This is where people vote the same way they always have regardless of what they are voting for. You would be shocked if you knew how many people are voting based on what they believe parties stand for and how few of them can actually say what that is or which policies back up their beliefs.
5) Gordon Brown would still be Prime Minister The final point that should not just make you vote no but to wake you up in fear every night is that under AV it is widely predicted that Gordon Brown would still be Prime Minister, Labour left office with the country bankrupted, debts piling up and millions deliberately trapped in poverty. After having spent all of our money, then borrowing billions more the outgoing Labour government still pledged millions they didn’t have on projects that were not necessities. Losing the election was the best thing to happen to Labour (and the country for that matter) as five more years would most likely have brought the country to its knees and ensured that Labour would have endured many years out of government. For the Conservative Party allowing Labour to hang themselves would have been preferable to taking the tough decisions of repairing the country, but unfortunately it is unlikely the country could have made it.
No comments:
Post a Comment