Thursday, 24 February 2011
King Alfred the Great: My Great x29 Grandfather
Basically I have worked this out using maths which work as follows.
1) Alfred The Great existed over 1000 years ago (I have used 1000 as a simple number to ease the calculations)
2) Since Alfred the Great became the first King of England there have been at least 33 Generations (Again simplified to have 30 years generations.)
3) As I had two parents – who each had two parents if I was to fill out a 33 Generation family tree 1000 years ago I had 8.5 Billion ancestors
4) There were only 30 Million people in Europe at the time (It is unlikely that I had many ancestors from outside Europe as travel was not exactly common.)
So the chances of me not being descended from Alfred The Great in any way is very minute obviously the probability isn’t 0 but it is very close. With Charlemagne who is the most used example of this theory and lived over 40 generations ago relating to 1 Trillion ancestors there is actually a 12,000,000,000,000,000 (12 Quadrillion?) to 1 chance that everyone living today with Primarily European descent is not descended from the Holy Roman Emperor. A similar effect is witnessed for other figures from around the world i.e. Confucius.
Of cause despite the knowledge that Alfred the Great sits on my Family Tree (Actually over 33 Generations I should have an average of 281 connections) I actually think that perhaps a much more interesting fact is that I will also have an average of 281 connections to every other person who was alive and had an exponential family tree at that time. I wonder if Alfred ever thought that as he went around on his mission to free England from the Danes that everyone he met that had children would at some point interact with his own children from Kings to Peasants so that at one point in the future in the England he worked so hard to achieve (Albeit a more Normanised version than he had planned.) The data held by electricity companies would be complete and without errors – Surely that is what it was all about.
Monday, 21 February 2011
Love Never Dies - But Perhaps it Should Have
Last week we went to the Adelphi to see “Love Never Dies” the sequel to The Phantom of the Opera, although it is apparently not a sequel – just a musical featuring the same characters, set a few years afterwards and based on a novel that is listed as a sequel to the original show, Not sure how something qualifies as a sequel these days.
Updated Premier League Predictions
I have re-evaluated the stats on my league table prediction programme (Replaced the predicted values with the real values and increased the Co-Eff of the new values by .2 to weight reality over predictions)
There have been big changes at the top since last time, Mainly for a Tottenham point of view that Chelsea will swap places with Man City but that Tottenham will still qualify for the Champions League – perhaps more remarkable however is that Arsenal will win the League overtaking Man Utd on the 30th April after victory at the Emirates stadium and not looking back from there.
Sunderland still sit in a highly likely Europa League place just needing either Arsenal to win the League Cup Final against Birmingham or Arsenal/Man Utd to play Man City in the FA Cup final and they will feature in the Europa League for the first time.
Liverpool's recent improvement in form is not enough to lift them above Sunderland, so if things go the way I predict then Liverpool will miss out on European Football next season unless both of the above come true.
The other big changes are at the bottom where Fulham are no longer predicted in the drop zone and West Ham end up getting relegated along with Blackpool and Wigan.
So here's the latest table
I must again preface this with the acknowledgement that I know that this is all rubbish and will still quite likely bear no resemblance to the final league position – especially as I have so far managed just 46% of correct results.
Friday, 18 February 2011
Movie Review: Tangled
Disney have once again foregone the star packed voice lists of Dreamworks and Fox choosing instead lesser known stars (Although not to take anything away from them.) Mandy Moore – More known as a singer than an actor and Zachary Levi – The guy from Chuck. The singing therefore sounds much more natural to the stars and in keeping with the traditional Disney animations feature as set pieces throughout the film. Supporting talent is provided by Ron Pearlman and Brad Garratt (The brother from “Everybody loves Raymond”, although to me he will always be Trypticon from Transformers.)
The film is fun enough to keep children amused but funny enough to entertain adults, and when your sitting down for a half term movie is there anything else you require?
Crawley Vs Manchester United
But this year apart from Spurs it has all been about Crawley and their visit this Saturday to Old Trafford to face Manchester United, now the Manchester United message boards are full of talk of Alex Fergusson resting players and putting out a reserve side which I am sure will happen but I am sure you can expect to see the United bench full of Talent who can be brought on in case of the shock goal by Tubbs. Personally I hope that United do start with a weakened side as although I am sure for the Crawley Town players the dream is to meet Berbatov and Rooney on the field but if they are underestimated by United there is a real chance of an upset, well maybe real chance is a bit of a stretch but in the FA cup you never know. Win or lose this is Crawley’s year, the FA Cup tends to throw up one of these teams every couple of years who go on a cup run much further than their league position suggests and although Wembley is a long way off the effect that this tie has had on the club financially (This one game could easily make the club more money than it has made in some previous seasons.) and on the Town in general, suddenly everyone is proud to be from Crawley and come Saturday at 17:15 the entire town will be either in Manchester or Inside watching the game – Obviously this will not be true I know for a fact my Wife has no interest in watching it but it feels like it at the moment.
Sunday there is a very real chance that we will be waking up to just see the reality that although Crawley are favourites to end the year as a League Team even the most optimistic fan knows there is a massive gulf between the countries best League and Non-League team but that will not stop us dreaming.
Champions League Dream Continues
It is a great bit of justification for Spurs fans, when Tottenham qualified last season I was told by many fans of Champions League teams (Mostly Chelsea but this is because I was working in South London and they were everywhere.) that we would not make it through qualification, Then after the draw for the groups was announced it was exclaimed happily that We were doomed and could never beat Inter Milan, then after the last draw I was confidently told, albeit at a lesser volume than the start, that AC Milan would humiliate us at the San Siro. I am happy to report that they are wrong once more, despite this and possibly due to the immense disappointment I have had over the years I am still cautious about declaring Tottenham the victors as it is only a one goal lead and anything can happen however we are in control of our own destiny and the Lane has been an intimidating fortress over the last few years so things are looking very bright.
The match itself was notable for the Attack of Gattuso on Joe Jordan our 60 year old first team coach (And voted number 34 in the list of 100 hardest footballers) This really was a game of two halves, in the first half Tottenham dominated, had most of the good attacks and looked set to dominate the AC Milan team who simply couldn’t find any rhythm the second half however Milan came out in a different move and seemed determined that if they could not out play Tottenham they would try and out muscle them, this also proved problematic however as Milan’s five footers struggled to muscle 6ft 7In Peter Crouch, they decided instead to rely on Cheating and unsportsmanlike behaviour. The main talking points (Other than the diminutive Hair Ball (Gattuso) attacking the Bald Giant (Jordon)) were the tackle by Flamini on Corluka which will hopefully not cause any serious injuries but shockingly did not result in a Red Card and the Tottenham Goal where Spurs particularly Aaron Lennon, Luka Modric and Crouch demonstrated that along with the flair and patient build up play we demonstrated in the first half there is also a killer counter attacking element to the team, one they must be fearful off when they visit the Lane
Thursday, 3 February 2011
Of cause we need NHS reform?
Anyway the reasons for the reform for the NHS are simple so I will not spend to long labouring the point.
1) It’s too Big
2) It Costs too much
3) It does too much
4) It wastes too much
Now as a resident of the United Kingdom I love the NHS, I think deep down so do most of us, however it IS unsustainable, if you as an individual were in as much debt as the Country is and you were renting a Lamborghini at £2000 a month, it would not be considered very prudent for you to cut your £10 a month newspaper bill (Although I would advise that you also cut out the non-essential items.) instead you would be suggesting that this imaginary person got rid of the Lamborghini and got something more reasonable like an Astra. The problem faced by the UK however is that we are paying for the Lamborghini and have got an Astra, albeit an Astra that is staffed by a professional driver but the hard work of the dedicated workforce still can’t make the Astra a Lamborghini.
So if the problem is not the money going in why would Labour think that the solution is to keep adding more money, if it hasn’t worked for the last 13 years I am at a complete loss to see why they think it would work now – but I guess that kind of thinking is how they got us into this mess in the first place! – The time has not just come to reform the NHS, but has come and passed several times, and if the NHS is to be reformed isn’t it infinitely better that it is driven by local medical professionals based on the needs that they see everyday rather than going the “Labour” way and bringing in another level of management to help push the decisions back into the centre where a Bureaucrat can sit with his medical insurance plan and decide that an old lady in Lancashire doesn’t need access to a drug as it will only extend her life by five years!
Another Record Transfer Window
For me as a Spurs fan the transfer window was for the main a disappointment, we purchased Steven Pienaar and failed to buy Charlie Adam on the last day of the window, personally I am very glad that we failed to buy Adam, again I think he is a quality player and I understand why Blackpool are so keen to keep him, but again he is not what is needed. If you look at Tottenham this season one thing you would not say is that we have looked lacking in midfield, I see a fully fit Tottenham squad as consisting of Lennon – Modric – Van Der Vaart – Bale so I am not really sure the part that Pienaar can play and I definitely do not see a place for the Blackpool skipper. Apparently we also spent our time looking for a striker, this I do agree with a little bit more as Peter Crouch and Roman Pavleychenko still do not seem to have what it takes when the chips are down and I don’t think it would be unfair to say that Jermaine Defoe is not firing at his best.
If I was to name all of the players that I believed Tottenham had that were of a Champions League standard i.e. Able to play consistently at the highest level. I would have to say we have Defoe (When fully fit again) Van Der Vaart, Modric, Bale, Lennon (Again when at peak performance) and finally I would include Woodgate although with his injuries he can’t really be counted. We then have several of what I would call Europa League level players who would be at home at any second level European Club – Huddlestone, Dawson, Bassong, Corluka, Gomes, Gallas (Although he has obviously been a first tier player previously.) King, Benoit and Hutton. As you can see from this list what I am trying to get at is that it is our defence that needs the work, all of our defensive players are either highly injury prone, or struggle to keep up a “Champions League” level of performance. I was very disappointed therefore to not see a decent stabilising defender coming into the squad over this window. Still it could be worse, we could be Liverpool!
Movie Review: Black Swan
The Second film I will be reviewing, or the first if you are reading the blog from the top down is Black Swan, Black Swan is the third film I have seen this week and it would not be a lie to suggest that that in most years this would be the film of the year, however up against the Kings Speech, for me it comes in second. With the Oscar buzz around both of these movies they are often mentioned together however they really couldn’t be more different. Where as the Kings Speech took someone who was well known, humanized them and let us into their inner struggles; the Black Swan takes an area which is less known to the majority of people and through the eyes of one dancer shows the stresses and strains that push against her and cause her to not just question her own abilities but also her own mind. Make no mistake that this film is not an easy watch, it is difficult viewing at times with the occasional flash of an image suddenly forcing you to reassess a lot of what you thought to be true.
Natalie Portman would be a deserving recipient of the Best Actress Oscar as the Israeli actor really nails the role and has you desperately searching for the truth as she responds to what is happening and what isn’t happening, The end is a cascade of emotions as you finally realise what has happened and what is imaginary only to suddenly be thrown back the other way and realise that the opposite is true.
Mila Kunis is very good as Portman’s friend/Rival and Winona Ryder is great (As usual) as the ageing prima ballerina who is replaced by Portman showing the cycle and fear that stalks the main dancers as, just when they are achieving their goals they are seemingly already looking over their shoulder to see who is coming up behind them, Perhaps this is how it felt to be a medieval king?
The film has several shocking moments; one that really got me was when a finger nail was ripped off (Something which always freaks me out.) but although there were many not looking at the screen moments they were very important to the plot and feel of the movie, refreshing in today’s torture porn cinema offerings.
I have never been to the ballet before and after watching this film feel I could never go in the future; if this is the toll it takes on the psyche of the dancers there is probably a very good case to be made for getting ballet banned.
Movie Review: Season of the Witch
I don’t want you to get the impression from this that Season of the Witch is a bad movie (It is, but you should pick that up from the review instead.) To be honest to call it a bad movie would probably be unfair, it was not supposed to be an Oscar winner but coming sandwiched between Oscar favourite The Kings Speech and the very well made Black Swan the inadequacies of this medieval adventure are only too obvious.
The story starts with a demonstration of the persecution of some witches, obviously much to the surprise of the priest carrying out the execution one of them turns out to be a real witch, we then cut to our two heroes (Nick Cage and Ron Pearlman) they are knights in the crusades, which seem to stretch from the Arctic to the Equator as they follow the commands of a clearly insane religious leader, they wake up and realise that they may not be doing gods work and walk away from the army.
This is all essential set up for the actual story which sees the two Heroes disillusioned with the Church finding themselves once again serving them as they escort the witch to a monastery where she can be put on trial for witch craft, there is the usual assortment of escorts along with the two main stars – The Older War Haggard Guard, The Young Inexperienced yet expert Swordsman and the cowardly conman forced to help in return for release from the stocks. The script and storylines are no more original than their choice of companions.
For me this story is made by Ron Pearlman, I should admit that I am a massive Ron Pearlman fan so this was always a bit of a given, but he is great in this film playing the usual “Pearlman” role (The Hard guy who is never endingly loyal.) Cage on the other hand whose acting talent is often unfairly questioned once again plays the same role this could easily be a scene from a flash back in the Sorcerers Apprentice or Ghost Rider the characters are ostensibly the same in each.
All that said the film is not really bad until the end when everything goes very over the top, but if by the time it arrives you are surprised then you really must not have been paying attention.